U.S. vs Venezuela Round 2: The Second Operation Would Be Harder (And Longer) - Here’s Why

It’s time for a Snapshot Report: Part Deux! 

In today’s video, I’m continuing my analysis of Operation Absolute Resolve and breaking down U.S. vs Venezuela Round 2—what a second U.S. military operation in Venezuela would realistically look like, and why a follow-on mission would likely be harder, longer, and more politically complicated than the first.

In this video…

• I recap and go more in-depth on what was publicly reported about Operation Absolute Resolve:

  • the capability stack

  • the “dominance window” concept

  • how the U.S. combined airpower, ISR, electronic warfare (EW), cyber/spectrum effects, special operations forces (SOF), and sea-based staging to create a pathway into Caracas and achieve the objective fast

• I discuss what would trigger a second operation, what would the goal be based on White House and administration statements, and what would the biggest points of friction be for U.S. forces if Washington had to go back in.

• I cover the follow-on phase that decides outcomes: security, governance stability, oil and infrastructure protection, interdiction pressure, and the risk of mission creep

• I talk about how other actors could respond (regional partners, U.S. adversaries, and countries friendly to Venezuela)

This is a military effectiveness and planning-style analysis—built around history and precedent—covering three likely models for a “Round 2” scenario:

1. A short punitive strike package (hours to 1–2 days)

2. A targeted raid series (days to weeks)

3. A stabilization reinforcement mission (weeks to months)

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